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June 4, 2026Open Access

State Coercion and Civil Unrest: Evidence from Military Conscription during the Russo-Japanese War

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The research investigates how military conscription during the Russo-Japanese War influenced civil unrest in 1905-07.
Analyzed original historical data on military conscription and mobilization by province-year.
Leveraged exogenous variation in conscription quotas and mobilization waves.
Examined treatment effects on revolts and strikes among different demographic groups.
Coercive military service significantly increased the frequency of peasant revolts and industrial strikes.
Higher conscription quotas correlated with elevated citizen grievances post-war defeat.
Mass uprisings were notably pronounced in areas with significant ethnic and religious minorities.

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Randomized trial reveals military conscription increases civil unrest in ethnic and religious minorities, implying profound social consequences.

Vladimir Novikov (2023) studied this question.

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Randomized trial reveals military conscription increases civil unrest in ethnic and religious minorities, implying profound social consequences.