Global Tropical Cyclone Response to Anthropogenic Aerosol Changes

Abstract There has been a clear geographic redistribution of global anthropogenic aerosols since the late‐20th century; however, how global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency responds to these shifts remains unclear. By analyzing TCs in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we identified a distinct TC frequency response to changes in aerosol concentrations. Prior to 1980, increasing aerosol levels concentrated in the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) triggered an asymmetric hemispheric TC frequency response, characterized by a decrease in the NH and an increase in the Southern Hemisphere. The Western North Pacific (WNP) featured a meridional dipole TC frequency pattern generated by a Central Pacific El Niño‐like response. Since 1980, aerosol concentrations have shifted from the mid latitudes to the low latitudes of the NH, leading to a modest response in TC frequency across most basins except the North Atlantic. This study highlights the crucial role of the spatial‐temporal evolution of aerosols in shaping global TC frequency patterns and emphasizes the importance of understanding these shifts for projecting future TC frequency.