Decision-Making Method for Load Connection in Business Expansion Considering the Bearing Capacity of Active Distribution Network and Load Growth

To address the insufficient consideration of load temporal characteristics, load growth, distributed generation (DG) integration, and business-expansion load connection in existing available-capacity assessment methods, this paper proposes a load-connection decision-making method for active distribution network. Firstly, considering the load temporal characteristics, load growth, DG, and the bearing capacity of transformer distribution districts, a time-series bearing capacity analysis model of transformer distribution districts is proposed. In addition, a heuristic topology search strategy considering dynamic capacity constraints is developed to identify feasible power-supply paths and evaluate the dynamically validated available capacity. Secondly, considering the integration of DG and energy storage systems (ESSs), as well as key indicators such as load balance, temporal characteristic matching and comprehensive economic performance, a business-expansion load-connection decision-making method for active distribution network is proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model and method is validated through a case study. The results show that after DG and ESS integration, the load balancing degree and temporal characteristic matching index are improved by approximately 31.42% and 18.21%, respectively. Compared with the peak-capacity method, single-capacity-index method, and loss-priority method, the proposed method achieves the highest or jointly highest comprehensive decision value under different operating scenarios. The improved branch-and-bound method reduces the number of actual evaluations while obtaining the same optimal decision result. The proposed method can optimize load-connection schemes and provide theoretical foundation and practical decision support for active distribution network planning and business expansion.