Energy and Logistics Cost Transmission in the Dairy Market: Evidence from Kazakhstan Using a Log-Linear ARDL Model

Background: This study aims to evaluate the impact of energy and logistics factors on the milk producer price index to support evidence-based policies that maintain price stability at an optimal level. Methods: Annual data for 2000–2023 are used, including the milk producer price index, milk production volume, transport CPI, diesel price, CO2 emissions from agriculture, and renewable energy consumption (percentage of total energy consumption). A log-linear ARDL model is applied to examine both short- and long-run asymmetric effects of diesel prices, transport costs, and agricultural CO2 emissions on milk production dynamics. Results: The research results indicate that energy expenses, logistics considerations, and environmental metrics have statistically significant asymmetric influences on milk production. This underscores the varying short-term adjustments and enduring long-term economic effects throughout the supply chain. Conclusions: Energy and cost factors on the supply side significantly influence the stability of milk markets. Therefore, improving transportation efficiency, encouraging the use of renewable energy sources, and addressing environmental impacts can contribute to consistent and sustainable pricing. Specific policies—including investments in transport infrastructure, subsidies for green energy targeting dairy producers, carbon pricing with support tailored to the sector, and digitalization of supply chains—can enhance resilience and ensure price stability.