A Data-Driven Spatiotemporal Risk Assessment Framework for Transformer Overload in Distributed Renewable Energy System

In distributed renewable energy systems, load fluctuations caused by energy resources and energy storage increase the overload risk of distribution transformers, which may accelerate insulation aging and cause overheating, and undermine operational reliability. For transformer condition monitoring, this risk is reflected not by a single variable but by heterogeneous sensing observations acquired from electrical, thermal, and equipment status monitoring channels. Because full-scale inspection of latent defects is impractical under limited staffing and equipment resources, accurate overload risk prediction is important for sensor-driven maintenance allocation. With such motivations, this paper proposes a Transformer Overload Risk Assessment (TORA) approach for robust overload risk prediction under nonstationary load conditions. First, a feature matrix is constructed by jointly incorporating static features that capture long-term drift and dynamic features extracted from multisource sensing and supervisory signals that reflect short-term fluctuations. Then, static and dynamic features are assessed with Edge-based Static Feature Risk Assessment (E-SFRA) model and Cloud-based Dynamic Feature Risk Assessment (C-DFRA) model, respectively, according to their temporal and statistical characteristics. Next, a periodic calibration model (CE-PAA) is established through a cloud–edge loop, which uses low-latency edge updates and high-capacity cloud computation as feedback. Finally, risk score fusion (RSF) fuses generated static and dynamic risk scores to integrate cloud and edge strengths. The case study results indicate that TORA can transform heterogeneous monitoring signals into calibrated risk information in the studied single power plant scenario, providing useful support for multisource sensor data fusion, transformer condition monitoring, and maintenance decision making. Further validation using multi source field datasets is still needed to assess its cross scenario generalization ability.