Mathematical Models Used to Assess the COVID-19 Outbreak and Preventive Measures

Background: Mathematical modelling is one of the most powerful methods for exploring the diverse range of intervention strategies, determining the fundamental reproduction rate, and forecasting disease spread. This paper reviews the mathematical models that were utilized to investigate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics. Methods: We looked through four electronic databases for research that evaluated the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using a mathematical modeling strategy based on compartmental models. Research describing COVID-19 transmission utilizing compartmental models and published in English in preprints and peer-reviewed publications between December 30, 2019 and May 25, 2020 was eligible for inclusion. This limitation period of time was chosen because it’s when the disease emerged and peaked in many countries worldwide. Results: A total of 46 studies that used compartmental models to explain COVID-19 transmission were included in the review. Six studies employed the age-structured SEIR model, making up the majority of studies’ (37/46) use of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) framework. In one of the eight investigations that used SIR, an age-structured model was used. One study evaluated COVID-19 transmission using the generalized SIRS model. To anticipate the onset of the disease, 36 of the 46 studies calculated the basic reproduction number, and 5 estimated the effective reproduction number. Conclusion: Modelling studies applied generalised and age-structure models to assess the transmission and control of the COVID-19, suggesting that combined mitigations have a substantial impact on disease transmission