Temperature trends in the permafrost of the Northern Hemisphere: Comparison of model calculations with observations

We present the results of analysis of numerical calculations of the thermal state of permafrost grounds at different depths using a model of heat and moisture transport in the ground developed at the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS). For high-latitude regions of Russia, the model-estimated temperature trends in grounds (around 0.3°C/10 years at a depth of 3 m) are quite consistent with empirical estimates for the past few decades.