Prediction of Mud Weight Window Based on Geological Sequence Matching and a Physics-Driven Machine Learning Model for Pre-Drilling

Accurate pre-drilling mud weight window (MWW) prediction is crucial for drilling fluid design and wellbore stability in complex geological formations. Traditional physics-based approaches suffer from subjective parameter selection and inadequate handling of multi-mechanism over-pressured formations, while machine learning methods lack physical constraints and interpretability. This study develops a novel physics-guided deep learning framework integrating rock mechanics theory with deep neural networks for enhanced MWW prediction. The framework incorporates three key components: first, a physics-driven layer synthesizing intermediate variables from rock physics calculations to embed domain knowledge while preserving interpretability; second, a geological sequence-matching algorithm enabling precise stratigraphic correlation between offset and target wells, compensating for lateral geological heterogeneity; third, a long short-term memory network capturing sequential drilling characteristics and geological structure continuity. Case study results from 12 wells in northwestern China demonstrate significant improvements over traditional methods: collapse pressure prediction error reduced by 40.96%, pore pressure error decreased by 30.43%, and fracture pressure error diminished by 39.02%. The proposed method successfully captures meter-scale pressure variations undetectable by conventional approaches, providing critical technical support for wellbore design optimization, drilling fluid formulation, and operational safety enhancement in challenging geological environments.