Central Grants and Local Policy Variation

This paper estimates the impact of central grants on local spending decisions in England in the 19%. The analysis is based on a more explicit conceptual framework and a more appropriate methodology than conventionally used to measure grant effects in ‘output’ studies' of local policy variation. A set of six hypotheses is derived from political and economic theories of grant impact. The relationship between grants and expenditure change is estimated through a TSLS (Two Stage Least Squares) regression model. The main empirical results are that grants are an important constraint on spending decisions and that different types of grants have different effects: lump sum grants are substitutive and matching grants are stimulative. The evidence also indicates that spending is influenced by party politics, service needs and the local tax base.