The Use of the Delphi Procedures in Manpower Forecasting

This paper is a case study in the development, implementation and evaluation of the delphi technique, which systematically makes use of expert judgment in generating manpower forecasts. The study was conducted in a large national retail organization on professional manpower. The results of the delphi technique are compared with results generated by conventional regression based models and the actual experience of the organization, which serves as the criterion. The study also analyzes the Informational elements used by experts during the delphi procedures and develops a model based on these elements. The usefulness of the delphi in generating manpower forecasting models is also discussed.