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Summary China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 demands substantial emission reductions across all sectors, including crop production—a major greenhouse gas (GHG) source with limited clarity on achieving net-zero emissions. Here, we map spatiotemporal patterns of net GHG emissions from 1980 to 2018 and develop a bottom-up model to explore zero-emission pathways. Net emissions from crop production nearly doubled during this period, reaching 1,161 ± 161 million metric tons (MMT) CO2-equivalent. Key strategies—closing yield gaps, increasing resource efficiency, reducing fossil fuel use, and improving soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration—could cut emissions by 51.3% and increase SOC sequestration by 63% by 2035. Still, 582 ± 72 and 366 ± 48 MMT CO2-equivalent would remain in 2035 and 2060, respectively. Around 45.6% of counties would achieve negative net emissions by 2060. Our crop- and county-specific findings underscore the need for integrated mitigation strategies to support policies for reducing agricultural GHG emissions.
Wang et al. (Fri,) studied this question.