When contraception fails: unintended parenthood and gender gaps

Parenthood fundamentally reshapes economic trajectories yet establishing causality remains methodologically challenging due to selection and timing endogeneity. This study introduces a novel identification strategy exploiting contraceptive failures as an exogenous source of variation in parenthood status. Using nationally representative survey data, I compare individuals who experienced contraceptive failures resulting in births against those using contraception who did not conceive. The findings reveal a striking gender paradox: while motherhood substantially reduces women's unconditional employment probability by approximately 20 per cent and higher education attainment by 5 per cent, fatherhood increases men's employment likelihood by 7 per cent and educational achievement by 11 per cent. These effects are most pronounced during children's first decade, with maternal employment penalties disappearing after age 10, though educational gaps persist. If the identifying assumptions are satisfied, this suggests that first unintended parenthood may not fully explain persistent long-term gender disparities, though cumulative fertility and anticipatory effects remain important candidates. This research introduces contraceptive failure as a credible new identification strategy, documenting bidirectional gender effects that amplify inequality. The results challenge conventional policy approaches by revealing that gender gaps arise not only from maternal penalties but also from paternal premiums.