Use of a stochastic precipitation nowcast scheme for fluvial flood forecasting and warning

In collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology (Melbourne, Australia), the Met Office (Joint Centre for Hydro–Meteorological Research, UK) has developed a stochastic precipitation nowcast scheme, designed to model and predict the PDF of surface rain rate and rain accumulation in space and time. Here we demonstrate the range of probabilistic products generated by the scheme, and their potential applications for fluvial flood forecasting and warning. With the aid of a hydrological model (the PDM), we consider the use of ensembles of predicted catchment rain accumulation in evaluating the range of possible river flow responses from a given catchment. When employed in conjunction with a catchment specific, cost‐based decision‐making model, we highlight the value of PDFs of forecast catchment rainfall accumulation and river flow as an aid to objective decision making within the flood warning process. Crown Copyright 2005. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.