A Predictive Site Location Model on the High Plains: An Example with an Independent Test

Models of archaeological site location that have a predictive capacity formed an integral part of the Pinon Canyon Archaeological Project, located in Las Animas County, southeastem Colorado. The models were developed through a focus on settlement theory and previous archaeological work, and through a combination of techniques and technologies including multivariate statistics, decision theory, principles of pattern recognition, image classification, and the computer science domain known as Geographic Information Systems. One previously undescribed model for a portion of the Pinon Canyon study region is examined. This model, although it performs at only a moderate level is noteworthy because a completely independent survey of that region recently has been conducted, allowing a “blind test” of its performance. We may therefore compare the predicted performance of this model against actual circumstances allowing an objective assessment of the utility of predictive modeling at Pinon Canyon.