Technology trajectories in mobile telecommunications: analysis of structure and speed of development

This paper takes up a technology trajectory aspect on the analysis of mobile phone technologies. An attempt is made to model the technological evolution within different technology platforms and between the competing technologies. A system dynamics model is developed to evaluate the break-even point of controversial technologies. The development data analysis of data speed performance suggests that the situation of current mobile data technologies is very sensitive and there are high investment risks in terms of technology. The technological trajectories are very similar and there is a possibility of making forecasts based on these analyses.