The Behavioral Component of Changing Partisanship

This article examines the impact of prior voting behavior on future party identification using the CPS 1972-74-76 Panel Study. The probability of changed partisanship increases with the occurrence of defection among Republicans and Democrats, and with the occurrence of one-party voting among Independents. However, most partisan change is not preceded by nonreinforcing behavior. Several alternative models are offered which fit many of the remaining changers. The behavioral patterns that accompany the adoption of Independence are different from the patterns accompanying the adoption of partisanship in a manner confirming the notion of two dimensions in the party ID measure, partisanship and Independence.