Confronting future urban perforation: Spatial analysis of districts in Japan with potential for being sparsely inhabited

This study examines the spatial distribution of low-density demographic areas caused by excess outflow of younger generations. As cities worldwide have shifted their urban policy from expanding development to reconstructing sustainable compact cities, it is necessary to understand the distribution of low-density areas. This study examines areas in Japan with the potential to become low density, using spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results indicate that areas at risk of future rapid, low-density growth have random geographic characteristics and that these can derive from and expand to surrounding areas over time.