Key result
New Saudi 10-year risk model identifies glycemic, lipid, and heart failure predictors for cardiovascular events.
Why the study?
Saudi Arabia has a high incidence of CVD and risk factors, but no CVD risk prediction model has been locally developed tailored to local population variables.
Cohort (n=451)
No
This study developed the first 10-year cardiovascular disease risk prediction model tailored specifically for the Saudi Arabian population.
May support tailored risk stratification in Saudi adults; extends prior models but leaves validation in prospective cohorts open.
Saudi Arabia has an alarmingly high incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its associated risk factors. To effectively assess CVD risk, it is essential to develop tailored models for diverse regions and ethnicities using local population variables. No CVD risk prediction model has been locally developed. This study aims to develop the first 10-year CVD risk prediction model for Saudi adults aged 18 to 75 years. The electronic health records of Saudi male and female patients aged 18 to 75 years, who were seen in primary care settings between 2002 and 2019, were reviewed retrospectively via the Integrated Clinical Information System (ICIS) database (from January 2002 to February 2019). The Cox regression model was used to identify the risk factors and develop the CVD risk prediction model. Overall, 451 patients were included in this study, with a mean follow-up of 12.05 years. Thirty-five (7.7%) patients developed a CVD event. The following risk factors were included: fasting blood sugar (FBS) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), heart failure, antihyperlipidemic therapy, antithrombotic therapy, and antihypertension therapy. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) score was 314.4. This is the first prediction model developed in Saudi Arabia and the second in any Arab country after the Omani study. We assume that our CVD predication model will have the potential to be used widely after the validation study.
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Alabduljabbar et al. (2023) conducted a cohort in Cardiovascular disease (CVD) (n=451). Cardiovascular risk factors (fasting blood sugar, HDL-c, heart failure, medication use) vs. Lower risk factor profile was evaluated on First fatal or non-fatal CVD event (coronary heart disease or stroke). A 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction model for Saudi adults identified fasting blood sugar, HDL-c, heart failure, and use of specific medications as significant independent predictors.
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