Thermo–Clipping Interactions in Utility–Scale PV Systems: Integrating Thermal–Optical Dynamics for Optimal DC/AC Sizing

The DC/AC ratio is a critical design variable in utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems because it governs inverter loading, clipping behavior, energy yield, and long-term economic performance. However, conventional sizing approaches often rely on heuristic rules or deterministic annual yield optimization without explicitly accounting for the thermodynamic, optical, and stochastic mechanisms that reshape the DC power envelope. This study develops a physics-informed and bankability-oriented PVsyst-based framework for optimal DC/AC sizing by integrating irradiance transposition, incidence-angle modifier losses, temperature-dependent semiconductor behavior, inverter clipping dynamics, degradation, and discounted lifetime levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). A 10 MWp fixed-tilt PV plant located in Western Türkiye under Mediterranean climatic conditions is analyzed. The base-case simulation yields 15.20 GWh/year with a specific yield of 1519 kWh/kWp/year and a performance ratio of 87.5%, while temperature losses are identified as the dominant loss mechanism, accounting for 6.21% of the annual energy reduction. A regression-based thermal sensitivity analysis shows that monthly PR decreases by approximately 4.9×10−3 per ∘C increase in ambient temperature. The DC/AC sweep identifies an optimum range of 1.35–1.40, where improved inverter utilization balances nonlinear clipping growth. A temporal clipping analysis confirms that clipping is concentrated during summer midday periods and is sensitive to sub-hourly irradiance variability. Correlated Monte Carlo simulations and LCOE cost-sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the optimum remains structurally robust under uncertainty, degradation, and inverter cost assumptions. The results show that DC/AC sizing should be treated as a coupled thermodynamic–optical–electrical–economic optimization problem rather than a simple capacity-matching decision.