Coupled Modeling of Vehicle Fleet Renewal Policies and Urban Environmental Corrosion: Dynamic Emission Trajectories and Infrastructure Coating Durability

Vehicle fleet renewal policies promoting NEVs aim to decarbonize transportation but inadvertently alter urban atmospheric corrosivity, threatening the durability of infrastructure coatings. This study investigated the cross-system impacts of vehicle trade-in subsidies on the degradation of protective coatings. We developed a coupled framework integrating a Mixed Logit model for fleet evolution, dynamic Life Cycle Assessment for tracking acidic precursors (SO2, NOx), and an Environmental Corrosion Risk Index. Using established Dose–Response Functions, we quantified the lifespan depletion of a standard epoxy zinc-rich primer and polyurethane topcoat system. Our results indicate that aggressive subsidies induce a transition to heavy NEVs, triggering an “emission inversion” that spikes upstream grid acidic emissions. This localized acidification significantly accelerates chemical degradation, reducing the effective service life of infrastructure coatings by 1.3–2.3 years and necessitating premature, costly recoating. We identify a Pareto-optimal subsidy window (8000–10,500 CNY) that effectively balances decarbonization targets with coating preservation. In conclusion, sustainable urban policies must incorporate surface engineering and material durability metrics to prevent emission shifts from compromising the physical integrity of transportation infrastructure.