Agent-based modelling of urban non-exhaust emissions reveals the limits of fleet electrification

Non-exhaust emissions from brake and tyre wear are now the dominant source of traffic-related particulate matter, complicated by heavier electric vehicles. Such particulate also includes road-surface wear and resuspended dust, but Dublin’s frequent rain suppresses them, so we calibrate the two dominant channels: brake wear (ultrafine particles, UFP) and tyre wear (PM 2.5 ). We build a high-resolution, moving-observer agent-based model of the Phibsborough junction, Dublin, calibrated against street-level Google Air View data, to evaluate passenger-preserving policy scenarios. Global sensitivity analysis reveals an interaction-dominated system where traffic dynamics rival fleet composition. Electrification benefits depend entirely on regenerative braking: UFP at 50% spans −19% (with regen) to + 13% (without), while PM 2.5 rises 1 to 5% from added mass. Bus modal shift gives the largest dual-pollutant gains (−30% UFP, −34% PM 2.5 at 50%). A 30 km/h limit cuts UFP 16.5% independently of fleet; a combined policy delivers −27% UFP and −12% PM 2.5 .