Long-Term (2007–2024) Thermal and Water Quality Dynamics in Lake Tisza (Kisköre Reservoir), Hungary: A Shallow Freshwater Ecosystem Under Climate Pressure

Freshwater shallow lakes are vulnerable to global warming, putting entire aquatic ecosystems at risk, but evidence from managed reservoirs remains limited despite the existence of long-term empirical data. Using data from 29 stations on Lake Tisza covering an 18-year period (2007–2024), this study quantifies warming rates, thermal stress patterns and trends in water quality in lacustrine, transitional and riverine zones. Lake areas warmed at a rate of 0.90 °C/decade (p < 0.001), faster than the river/transition areas and even than global averages in shallow lakes. Temperature-critical years now affect 90.4% of lake stations, compared with 59.6% in 2007–2012. A strong negative correlation between temperature and dissolved oxygen was observed along all systems (Spearman’s p; river: −0.83, transition: −0.65, lake: −0.53), indicating thermal-driven deoxygenation risk. At the same time, a water quality index (conductivity, pH, BOD5, total nitrogen and phosphorus, total coliforms) showed an improvement (lake WQI: 63.7 to 74.3). Principal component analysis explained 85% of its variance, showing spatial gradients of eutrophication and fecal contamination, with lacustrine homogenization suggesting management interventions. Lake Tisza is warming faster than global shallow lake averages, with critical implications for the ecosystem’s function; nonetheless, the coexistence of thermal deterioration with improvements in its WQI reveals the effectiveness of the intermittent discharge system and the need for climate-adapted monitoring frameworks that incorporate thermal vulnerability into water quality assessment for regulated shallow lakes under climate change pressure.