A System Dynamics Model to Support Transportation Procurement Based on the Logistical Costs of Potato Distribution in Mexico

Background: This study evaluates the return on investment (ROI) in new transport equipment using a purpose-built graphical user interface (GUI), addressing whether acquiring additional vehicles for peak demand periods is economically viable compared to optimizing the existing fleet. The research focuses on agricultural product transportation—specifically potatoes—across four key routes. Methods: A system dynamics (SD) methodology was applied, combining simulation and data analysis through a GUI that enabled the adjustment of key variables, including operating costs, yields, and transportation expenses. Results: The analysis revealed notable differences in costs and profitability across the studied routes. Variables such as diesel costs and fuel efficiency proved particularly influential on outcomes. The GUI demonstrated clear value as a visualization tool, enhancing comprehension of simulated scenarios and supporting strategic decision-making. Conclusions: Investing in new transport equipment can be profitable under specific operational and economic conditions, providing a solid foundation for expansion and optimization decisions. Beyond its immediate operational contribution, the study offers a replicable profitability analysis model applicable to future projects within the company.