Key result
VO2max prediction models showed only low-to-moderate accuracy compared to direct measurement in endurance athletes, with the best being the Kokkinos model on a cycle ergometer (R2=0.65).
Why the study?
Numerous prognostic models have been developed to predict VO2max, but their accuracy in endurance athletes remains mostly unvalidated.
Do VO2max prediction models accurately predict directly measured VO2max in healthy adult endurance athletes?
Observational (n=5,260)
No
Do VO2max prediction models accurately predict directly measured VO2max in healthy adult endurance athletes?
Existing VO2max prediction equations demonstrate only moderate accuracy in endurance athletes and should only be used as a supplemental method, highlighting the need for athlete-specific models.
May warrant caution using existing models in endurance athletes; leaves open need for athlete-specific equations.
In recent years, numerous prognostic models have been developed to predict VO2max. Nevertheless, their accuracy in endurance athletes (EA) stays mostly unvalidated. This study aimed to compare predicted VO2max (pVO2max) with directly measured VO2max.5,260 healthy adult EA underwent a maximal exertion cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) (84.76% male; age 34.6±9.5 yrs.; VO2max 52.97±7.39 mL·min -1 ·kg -1 , BMI 23.59±2.73 kg·m -2 ). 13 models have been selected to establish pVO2max. Participants were classified into four endurance subgroups (high-, recreational-, low- trained, and “transition”) and four age subgroups (18-30, 31-45, 46-60, and ≥61 yrs.). Validation was performed according to TRIPOD guidelines. pVO2max was low-to-moderately associated with direct CPET measurements ( p >0.05). Models with the highest accuracy were for males on a cycle ergometer (CE) (Kokkinos R 2 =0.64), females on CE (Kokkinos R 2 =0.65), males on a treadmill (TE) (Wasserman R 2 =0.26), females on TE (Wasserman R 2 =0.30). However, selected models underestimated pVO2max for younger and higher trained EA and overestimated for older and lower trained EA. All equations demonstrated merely moderate accuracy and should only be used as a supplemental method for physicians to estimate CRF in EA. It is necessary to derive new models on EA populations to include routinely in clinical practice and sports diagnostic.
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Wiecha et al. (2022) conducted an observational in Healthy endurance athletes (n=5,260). VO2max prediction models vs. Directly measured VO2max (CPET) was evaluated on Accuracy of predicted VO2max compared to directly measured VO2max (R2). VO2max prediction models showed only low-to-moderate accuracy compared to direct measurement in endurance athletes, with the best being the Kokkinos model on a cycle ergometer (R2=0.65).
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