What question did this study set out to answer?

To assess expert perceptions of permafrost carbon vulnerability in response to climate change; to quantify potential emissions.

March 25, 2013Climatic ChangeOpen Access

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

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Expert survey evaluates permafrost carbon response to warming scenarios, indicating significant climate implications.

To assess expert perceptions of permafrost carbon vulnerability in response to climate change; to quantify potential emissions.
Surveyed experts on carbon release estimates under different warming scenarios.
Analyzed expert predictions for carbon release from permafrost soils by the years 2040, 2100, and 2300.
Evaluated impacts of different global warming potentials for CH4 and CO2.
Experts estimated carbon release of 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 under RCP 8.5.
Release projections could increase by 50% when factoring in the 20-year GWP of CH4.
Under RCP 2.6, two-thirds of the projected release could be avoided.

Schuur et al. (2013) studied this question.

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