Quantifying potential effects of China’s gallium and germanium export restrictions on the U.S. economy

China's export controls on gallium and germanium exemplify concerns regarding the reliability of supplies of mineral commodities that are essential to economic development, national security, and transition to renewable energy.This report presents a new model that quantifies the potential effects of mineral commodity supply disruptions on the U.S. economy.After calculating postdisruption equilibrium prices and quantities, a nonlinear optimization routine was used along with economic input-output tables to estimate the effects of varying Chinese net export restrictions of gallium and germanium on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).The results indicated that a complete restriction of China's net exports of gallium and germanium could cause the U.S. GDP to decrease by $3.1 billion (with lower and upper estimates of $1.7 billion to $8.2 billion) and $0.4 billion ($0.01 billion to $1.1 billion), respectively, if disrupted separately, and $3.4 billion ($1.7 billion to $9.0 billion) if disrupted simultaneously.The proposed model can be applied to other commodities and disruption scenarios. Significance StatementModern technology depends on reliable supplies of mineral commodities.Yet, their supply chains are under increasing strain from regional conflicts, trade disputes, and resource nationalization.Assessing these risks is a priority for importdependent countries, with many countries developing lists that highlight the commodities of most concern to them.These analyses do not include results that can weigh the benefits of enacting certain policies against the costs of inaction.This report presents a new model that assesses the economic effects of mineral commodity supply disruptions on the U.S. economy.Once expanded to include many commodities, the results could be used to update the U.S. critical minerals list and provide decision makers with an economic basis to inform various initiatives and policies.1 U.S. Geological Survey.