The Prediction of Dangerous Behavior

Error is inevitable whenever psychologists attempt to predict future behavior. This paper examines the steps involved and the factors to be considered in the prediction of behavior in general and dangerous behavior in particular. Errors can occur in identifying the relevant personality and situational variables to sample, assessing these variables, and determining their interaction. The effects of these errors are multiplied by the fact that violence is a low base-rate phenomenon. The consequences of errors in violence prediction are examined and the ethical problems and social policy implications discussed.