The Great Games Never Played: Explaining Variation in International Competition Over Energy

Why do energy-hungry states nevertheless choose not to compete over energy resources? Contrary to the initial expectations of scholars and analysts, major changes in global energy supply have sometimes failed to spark “great games.” This paper presents an explanation for variation in competition, arguing that shifts involving energy touch off competition only when they affect political power between rivals in specific ways, when they do not result in beneficial effects that outweigh concerns about power, and when the cost of competition is bearable. After clarifying the concept of power in the energy issue area, the article applies this explanation to US decisions during four major post-Cold War developments in oil or natural gas, illustrating why American decision-makers chose to engage in competition with Russia or China in only half of these instances. The article concludes with implications for US grand strategy.