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ABSTRACT No‐till may have the potential to improve the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change by enhancing soil structure and soil health. However, the experimental evidence for this is inconclusive because few field trials have been established long enough for the soil to reach a new (quasi‐) equilibrium state upon adopting no‐till practices. Soil‐crop models should be useful tools to fill this knowledge gap, but most neglect the dynamics of soil properties and so cannot predict long‐term changes in soil health. One exception is Uppsala model of Soil Structure and Function (USSF), which accounts for soil structure dynamics due to physical (e.g., swell‐shrink, tillage) and biological (e.g., faunal activity, aggregation) processes. In this study, we used the USSF model to evaluate the potential long‐term impacts of no‐till systems on soil structure, soil organic matter (SOM), water balance, and yields of winter wheat based on data obtained from a long‐term farming systems trial near Zürich, Switzerland. The model was first calibrated against field measurements during one growing season of soil water contents, leaf area index, and grain yield and aboveground biomass of winter wheat. The calibrated model was then used to simulate a baseline period (1985–2015) and 18 transient future climate scenarios for the period 2020 to 2090 for continuous winter wheat in conventionally cultivated and no‐till systems. In the simulations driven by future climate projections, SOM stocks decreased by 3%–15% in the tilled soil, whereas they were maintained under no‐till despite rising temperatures. Enhanced physical protection associated with soil aggregation and improved thermal regulation from the surface residue cover were identified as mechanisms contributing to the maintenance of SOM stocks under no‐till. Wheat yields increased slightly and were similar for tilled and no‐tilled treatments, as simulated drought stress rarely occurred at the site, which has a wet climate, despite reductions in summer rainfall. The no‐till system also showed an improved water balance, with smaller losses by surface runoff and soil evaporation, suggesting that conservation agriculture should be a promising strategy for sustaining soil health and soil functions in the face of a warming climate.
Feifel et al. (Sat,) studied this question.