Prediction and Reality

In a landmark study carried out for the New South Wales State Government in 1976 the present author analysed the economic impact of the meetings and convention industry in Australia. That report laid the foundation for the development of the Sydney Entertainment and Exhibition Centre, although it was not until some time later that purpose-built convention centres began to be constructed in the major convention destinations of Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. The 1976 study provided a benchmark for the early characteristics of the Australian convention industry that can now be updated and critically examined. Longitudinal studies of this nature are now becoming possible with the passage of time since the first focussed research into tourism in Australia was carried out. This paper sets out the predictions made in 1976 for the likely size of the meetings and convention industry in 1993, analyses the assumptions made then and their impact on those predictions; and compares them with the actual characteristics of the industry in 1993-4. Recent research shows that the original predictions considerably understated the actual growth of this sector of the tourism industry. While differences in methodology make direct comparison difficult, it would appear that the dollar value of the conventions part of the MICE industry in Australia as estimated in 1976 (after correction for inflation) was about 73 percent of the actual result in 1993-94. This shows that the Australian domestic and international convention sector has grown faster than appeared possible in 1976.