Study on the Diurnal Difference of the Impact Mechanism of Urban Green Space on Surface Temperature and Sustainable Planning Strategies

Urban densification intensifies the heat island effect, threatening ecological security. Green spaces, as crucial spatial elements in regulating the urban thermal environment, remain poorly understood in terms of their morphological characteristics and regulatory mechanisms, with a lack of systematic quantification and recognition of diurnal variations. This study, focusing on Shanghai’s main urban area, constructs physiological, physical, and morphological variables of green spaces based on high-resolution remote sensing data and the MSPA landscape morphology analysis framework. By integrating machine learning models with the SHAP interpretation algorithm, it analyses the influence mechanism of green spaces on Land Surface Temperature (LST) and its non-linear characteristics from the perspective of diurnal variation. The results indicate the following: (1) Green spaces exhibit pronounced diurnal variation in LST influence. Daytime cooling is primarily driven by vegetation cover, vegetation activity, and surface albedo through evapotranspiration and shading; night-time cooling depends on soil moisture and green space spatial structure and is achieved via thermal storage-radiative heat dissipation and cold air transport. (2) Green space indicators exhibit pronounced nonlinearity and threshold effects on LST. Optimal cooling efficiency occurs under moderate vegetation activity and moderate humidity conditions, whereas extreme high humidity or high vegetation activity may induce heat retention effects. (3) Day–night thermal regulation mechanisms differ markedly. Daytime cooling primarily depends on vegetation transpiration and shading to suppress surface warming; night-time cooling is dominated by soil thermal storage release, longwave radiation dissipation, and ventilation transport, enabling cold air to diffuse across the city and establishing a stable, three-dimensional nocturnal cooling effect. This study systematically reveals the distinct diurnal cooling mechanisms of high-density urban green spaces, providing theoretical support for refined urban thermal environment management.