Relevance of Demographic Transition Theory for Developing Countries

The theory of demographic transition as it was originally applied to nineteenth century Europe is explained in some detail. When analyzed with nineteenth century European data the theory is empirically supported at the highest level of generality. The theory fails to explain differentials in overall fertility levels among various pretransition European countries. It also does not take into account differences in timing of onset and pace of fertility declines in these several countries. The explanatory and predictive functions of the theory when applied to modern-day Asian African and Latin American countries is examined. Factors such as present high levels of pretransition fertility and international migration militate against so-called natural fertility declines. Certain differences between the situation of European transition and that of modern developing countries such as the accelerated pace of socioeconomic development favor more rapid fertility declines. Today the question of population has become politicized and cannot be considered in wholly scientific terms.