Projection, Forecast, and Plan On the Future of Population Forecasting

This article argues for basic changes in the way population forecasts are made and used in the planning process. The misuse and uncritical reliance on projections of current trends should end. More attention must be devoted to the systematic analysis of factors not considered by today's formal models, and a new generation of research methods and skills must be developed to study the future and planning's ability to shape it. Important initial steps in this reorientation from projections to forecasts are within the current resources and capabilities of planning agencies. Perhaps most important, however, the need to forecast is an invitation to planners to become again a source of ideas and inspiration for their communities about what might be and what ought to be.