The Planning Implications of Disparate Rural Population Growth Trends

Demographers documented a net in-migration trend in many rural areas across the country in the 1970s that seemed to present hope for a "rural renaissance." Since 1982, demographers have reported a nationwide end to the rural in-migration, but using only county and higher population groupings. Based on 1970-1980 data for Illinois, this hides the fact that a rural county may continue to include both growth and decline despite overall stagnation or even decline for the total county. Data presented for 1,199 non-SMSA townships in Illinois shows that significant population growth occurred in remote rural townships containing environmental amenities and access to major roads. This occurred even as other townships in the same counties showed no growth or even continued out-migration and suggests that quality of life factors in combination with access to good roads are very important in rural growth as opposed to traditional economic explanations. It also suggests complex planning problems for rural community development planners faced with pockets of significant growth and decline. While the initial impression is that any new in-migrants will help revitalize and improve rural economies and service delivery, this research warns that the size and pattern of rural in-migration may fall short of a significant economic renaissance. In fact, it may produce more planning service delivery problems rather than offering solutions to old problems or improving the planning capabilities of rural governments.