Propofol-associated Hypertriglyceridemia: Development and Multicenter Validation of a Machine-Learning-Based Prediction Tool

Purpose: To develop and validate an explainable machine learning (ML) tool to help clinicians predict the risk of propofol-associated hypertriglyceridemia in critically ill patients receiving propofol sedation. Methods: Patients from 11 intensive care units (ICUs) across five Mayo Clinic hospitals were included if they met the following criteria: a) ≥ 18 years of age, b) received propofol infusion while on invasive mechanical ventilation for ≥24 h, and c) had a triglyceride level measured. The primary outcome was hypertriglyceridemia (triglyceride >400 mg/dL) onset within 10 days of propofol initiation. Both COVID-inclusive and COVID-independent modeling pipelines were developed to ensure applicability post-pandemic. Decision thresholds were chosen to maintain model sensitivity >80%. Nested leave-one-site-out cross-validation (LOSO-CV) was used to externally evaluate pipeline performance. Model explainability was assessed using permutation importance and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results: Among 3922 included patients, 769 (19.6%) developed propofol-associated hypertriglyceridemia, and 879 (22.4%) had COVID-19 at ICU admission. During nested LOSO-CV, the COVID-inclusive pipeline achieved an average AUC-ROC of 0.71 (95% confidence interval CI 0.70–0.72), while the COVID-independent pipeline achieved an average AUC-ROC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.68–0.70). Age, initial propofol dose, and BMI were the top three most important features in both models. Conclusion: We developed an explainable ML-based tool with acceptable predictive performance for assessing the risk of propofol-associated hypertriglyceridemia in ICU patients. This tool can aid clinicians in identifying at-risk patients to guide triglyceride monitoring and optimize sedative selection.