Electromobility Impact on the Power Grid - Base Case for Probabilistic Modelling

The Swedish electric vehicle fleet is rapidly growing, creating a need to include their charging demand in future grid planning. Charging stations are often placed based on the needs of the transport system, and the grid connection is considered at a later stage with long lead times. This study proposes selecting charging locations based on grid capacity. Doing this by probabilistic load flow requires a probabilistic base case, which has been created specifically for grid impact studies of electromobility. Probabilistic input profiles of consumption and wind power generation in the study area of the Swedish bidding area SE4 are created based on publicly available data sets and a worst case scenario. The probabilistic input profiles have been validated against available data on the total consumption and generation in SE4. The grid model used is the actual detailed grid model of the Swedish transmission and sub-transmission network in SE4. A case study illustrates how the base case can be used to examine the most suitable location of a fast charging station using risk based grid planning. The results indicate that it is possible to perform realistic probabilistic load flow simulations with the created synthetic base case.