On Air Pollution Trends Due to Long-Range Transport in the Caucasus Mineral Waters Region in 1980–2050 in a Changing Climate

The trends of air pollution in the resort region of Caucasian Mineral Waters (CMW) due to long-range transport in 1980–2024 according to reanalysis data and in 2025–2050 taking into account the most typical climate change scenarios of the SSP group (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) have been studied. The study is carried out on the basis of solving the conjugate problem of transport and diffusion of pollutants in the atmosphere, calculating the functional characterizing the total amount of pollutants incoming the region, and calculating the air pollution index characterizing the direction of pollutants entering region. The results show no significant changes in the long-range transport and or quantity of pollutants entering in this way (in the case of unchanged intensity of their sources) for the CMW region in both the historical (1980–2024) and future (2025–2050) periods, taking into account climate scenarios. In terms of the impact of climate change, it can be expected that, until 2050, favorable air quality and health potential in the resort region will remain at the same level. At the same time, nearby and remote sources of pollutant emissions require constant monitoring and control.