Ecological macroeconomics meets community-led modelling: localising ecological macroeconomics through participatory system dynamics

Understanding how local economies and wellbeing evolve under ecological constraints is central to ecological macroeconomic modelling, but local-scale applications remain limited. We co-produced a participatory system dynamics model with a small rural community in south-eastern Australia to explore alternative local futures. Six scenarios (the local socioeconomic pathways) were developed collaboratively, integrating community priorities and values into both qualitative narratives and quantitative model parameters. Our approach combined participatory scenario development, community-led modelling, and quantitative pathway analysis, including sensitivity and uncertainty assessments. This enabled a systematic exploration of alternative futures and the trade-offs between social, environmental, and economic dimensions. The results revealed that scenarios prioritising economic growth exhibited greater uncertainty, while those emphasising social and environmental dimensions, particularly a low-growth pathway, delivered more robust and desirable sustainability outcomes for the community. The community-led modelling process enhanced the legitimacy, transparency, and relevance of the results, supporting informed decision-making and enabling stakeholders to navigate complex trade-offs and uncertainties. This research demonstrates the value of integrating participatory and quantitative approaches for place-based planning, and highlights how community-scale modelling can extend ecological macroeconomic thinking by making distributional outcomes, constraints, and robustness visible in local decisions.