Wildfire incidence in Spanish Natura 2000 sites is largely explained by forest land cover

The relationship between wildfires and protected areas remains controversial in Mediterranean regions, where several studies have reported a disproportionate incidence of fires within protected sites. Using data from the European Forest Fire Information System, 8.241 wildfires recorded in Spain between 2008 and 2025 were analyzed to assess whether wildfire incidence in Natura 2000 sites is primarily associated with protection status or with land-use structure, particularly forest land cover. Indicators of burnt area for total land and forest land at the national level and within the Natura 2000 network were calculated by aggregating wildfire perimeters and their distribution across forest land and Natura 2000 areas, and expressed as proportional indicators to enable direct comparison between spatial units. Additionally, correlation analyses between burnt area variables and Mann-Kendall tests to assess temporal trends in burnt area were applied. Natura 2000 sites accounted for 38.6% of the burnt area in Spain and 40.6% of the burnt forest land. Although the proportion of burnt area relative to total territory was higher within Natura 2000 than nationally (4.9% vs. 3.5%), this difference was largely explained by the higher share of forest land in protected sites (80.9% vs. 54.4%). When considering forest land only, the proportion of burnt area in Natura 2000 was slightly lower than the national average (5.4% vs. 5.9%). Significantly increasing trends in burnt area were detected in both protected and non-protected areas using the Mann-Kendall test. These results suggest that apparent differences in wildfire incidence between protected and non-protected areas are largely attributable to land-use composition rather than to protection status itself, highlighting the importance of explicitly accounting for landscape structure when interpreting wildfire statistics.