Evaluating the Mismatch Hypothesis: A Meta-Analysis of Affirmative Action Outcomes in College Admissions

The mismatch hypothesis suggests that students admitted through affirmative action have higher graduation rates at less selective institutions than at more selective ones (e.g., state universities as opposed to Ivy Leagues). This hypothesis has sparked debates in politics and education, prompting numerous empirical studies. However, a definitive conclusion has been elusive due to a lack of systematic, quantitative research. This meta-analysis synthesizes 65 effects (N = 526,679) and finds evidence contradicting the mismatch hypothesis. Results indicate that affirmative action students have higher graduation rates at selective institutions compared to less selective universities. The findings highlight important implications for inclusion and diversity in higher education.