Designing Climate-Resilient Social Housing: Why Weather File Choice Matters for Future Energy Demand

This study investigates how future climate change will alter heating and cooling demand in UK social housing, addressing wider concerns about fuel poverty risks and long-term climate resilience. Using a two-bedroom, offsite manufactured home in Northwest England as a case study, the research applies dynamic building performance modeling to assess energy use. This output then uses a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tool to inform the choice of the weather file in the simulation process. The simulation weather files represent the 2030, 2050, and 2080 climate scenarios. The results show a clear shift from heating-led demand toward increasing summer cooling requirements. These changes have implications for grid capacity, occupant wellbeing, and the affordability of energy services. The analysis demonstrates that weather file selection significantly affects predicted performance outcomes. The study concludes that accurate weather file choice is essential for reliable Building Performance Simulation (BPS). It underscores the need to integrate environmental, social, and economic considerations into future housing design.