Green M&A, Green Finance, and Corporate Market Value Enhancement: A Signaling Game-Theoretic and Empirical Analysis

The low-carbon transition is reshaping firms’ strategic behavior and financial resource allocation, yet the mechanisms linking green mergers and acquisitions (green M&A), green credit, and market value remain insufficiently understood. Existing studies recognize the signaling role of environmental actions but often lack a formal game-theoretic framework to explain how green M&A conveys information to financial institutions and capital markets. This study fills this gap by developing a signaling game model between firms and financial institutions to analyze how green M&A affects market value directly and indirectly through credit resource flow. Using panel data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2013 to 2023, we examine the observable implications derived from the model: the value effect of green M&A, its association with green credit allocation, and the mediating role of green credit. The results show that green M&A is associated with higher market value and greater green credit allocation, while green credit serves as a partial transmission channel. These effects are weakened by internal climate-risk exposure and climate-policy uncertainty, and strengthened by media attention. This study develops a unified theoretical–empirical framework for understanding the economic consequences and financial transmission mechanisms of green M&A, offering implications for corporate green transformation and green-finance resource allocation.