Ethnic intolerance and ethnic conflict in the dissolution of Yugoslavia

Abstract The causal link between ethnic intolerance and ethnic conflict is tested using four highly comparable data sets from Croatia that span the time before and after the violent dissolution of Yugoslavia: 1984–5, 1989–90, 1996 and 2003. Though most approaches to ethnic conflict posit a social-psychological dimension critical to violent encounters, our analysis provides an unprecedented empirical examination that dispels the commonly held view that ethnic hatred, hostility, and intolerance are the cause of ethnic conflict. After explaining the events and the shifting social, political and economic landscape that precipitated the war, we examine demographic, social structural and attitudinal changes between 1985 and 2003 that are associated with variation in ethnic intolerance, giving special attention to the connection between religiosity and intolerance. Prior to the war people were slow to translate public tensions into personal animosities. We find strong support for concluding that the events of the war itself and especially elite manipulation of public images of these events, are strongly implicated in rising intolerance during the war, and that the war's residual effect has been slow to dissipate.