Applicability of tank models for forecasting landslide risk on individual slopes during heavy rainfall

Q: What does this research mean for the field?

The Aoki-Hioki tank model, which varies infiltration rate with storage height, reliably reproduces vertical 1D unsaturated infiltration regardless of unsaturated zone thickness, whereas the standard Sugawara model struggles when the unsaturated zone is thick. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

Satoshi NAKAMURA; Kazuaki HIOKI

doi:10.3313/jls.63.109

January 1, 2026Journal of the Japan Landslide Society

Applicability of tank models for forecasting landslide risk on individual slopes during heavy rainfall

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Key Points

This research aims to assess the applicability of tank models for predicting landslide risk during heavy rain by optimizing model parameters.
Used genetic algorithm for random search method to optimize parameters of tank models.
Evaluated unsaturated permeability characteristics through comparative analysis of two tank models: Sugahara and Aoki-Hioki models.
Conducted vertical one-dimensional unsaturated infiltration analysis for reproducibility evaluation.
In Sugahara model, difficulties arise in reproducing unsaturated flow analysis results when the unsaturated zone becomes thicker.
Aoki-Hioki model provides relatively ease of reproducing infiltration results regardless of the thickness of the unsaturated zone.

Implication

Examines landslide risk on slopes during heavy rainfall, suggesting effective prediction methods.

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Cite This Study

NAKAMURA et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a250a0b7def13d035e1a5bd https://doi.org/10.3313/jls.63.109

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Applicability of tank models for forecasting landslide risk on individual slopes during heavy rainfall

Key Points

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

Applicability of tank models for forecasting landslide risk on individual slopes during heavy rainfall

Key Points

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

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