Can UK Traditional Cider Production Achieve Net Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050? A Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Transition Pathways

: Conventional life cycle assessment methods are insufficient for tracking the decarbonisation of beverage production as they do not capture dynamic factors such as annual carbon sequestration in perennial orchards and wider energy system decarbonisation. This study addresses these gaps by developing a prospective life cycle assessment to evaluate transition pathways for the UK traditional cider supply chains. We model three transition scenarios: (i) grid decarbonisation; (ii) fossil fuel phase-out in orchards; and (iii) biochar-to-soil production and application. We assess their impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, acidification, and eutrophication. Grid decarbonisation alone achieves only a 17% greenhouse gas reduction by 2050. Biochar-to-soil has greater decarbonisation potential but introduces environmental trade-offs and data uncertainties. Fossil fuel phase-out is the most effective transition pathway, achieving net-negative greenhouse gas emissions (-64 g CO 2 e/L of cider) by 2040 during peak orchard sequestration and stabilising near net zero in 2050. Eliminating fossil fuel use (e.g. diesel) also delivers significant co-benefits of reducing other environmental impacts (i.e. acidification and eutrophication). Integrating orchard carbon sequestration into greenhouse gas inventories alongside grid decarbonisation and fossil fuel phase-out incentives will create a no-regret strategy with significant co-benefits. This study demonstrates that prospective life cycle assessment can provide a dynamic carbon accounting approach and actionable insights for agricultural/industrial supply chains such as cider production.