Coupling Coordination and Obstacle Factors of Electricity-Carbon-Green Certificate Markets in China

Against the backdrop of China’s dual-carbon targets and the construction of a new-type power system, the coordinated development of the electricity market, carbon market, and tradable green certificate (TGC) market is critical for energy system optimization. Based on 2024 cross-sectional data from 30 Chinese provinces, this study employs an entropy-weighted coupling-coordination model and an obstacle-degree model to evaluate the coupling coordination level of the three markets and identify regional bottlenecks. The results show that: (1) The national average coupling coordination degree is 0.581 (ranging from 0.480 to 0.747), with 10 provinces reaching the “favourably balanced” level, 17 provinces at the “barely balanced” level, 3 provinces at the “slightly unbalanced” level, and no province achieving the “superiorly balanced” level. (2) Regionally, the coupling coordination degree exhibits an “east-high, west-low” pattern, and most provinces display a “high coupling but low coordination” pattern. (3) The underdevelopment of the TGC market is a nationwide issue, characterized by dual structural problems on both the supply and demand sides. This study provides quantitative evidence and empirical support for enhancing the synergy of the electricity–carbon–TGC markets and promoting regionally differentiated policy formulation.