Green Technology Innovation and Low-Carbon Transition: Mediating Pathways of Energy Consumption and Industrial Structure

Global climate change is intensifying, and green technology innovation (GTI) is widely regarded as a core driver of low-carbon economic transition. However, its actual emission reduction effects remain debated. Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2009–2023), this study constructs a nonlinear econometric model to empirically analyze the impact of GTI on carbon emissions and carbon performance, while also examining the mediating roles of energy consumption structure and industrial structure, and regional heterogeneity. The results show (1) a significant inverted-U relationship between GTI and carbon emissions, and a U-shaped relationship between GTI and carbon performance; (2) GTI indirectly promotes low-carbon transition by reducing the share of coal in energy consumption (energy structure optimization) and increasing the share of the tertiary industry (industrial upgrading); (3) significant regional heterogeneity exists—resource-based cities show weaker emission reduction effects due to traditional energy dependence, while non-resource-based cities exhibit stronger carbon reduction outcomes. Based on these findings, we propose policy recommendations including strengthening GTI financial support, accelerating clean energy adoption, promoting industrial upgrading, implementing region-differentiated policies, and improving GTI evaluation systems to achieve the win-win goal of economic development and environmental protection.