Research on Predicting the Lifespan of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using the Micro XGBoost Model Cluster

Accurately predicting the capacity degradation of lithium-ion batteries is crucial for ensuring the reliability and safety of electric vehicles and energy storage systems. However, existing methods—including those based on physical principles, deep learning, and traditional machine learning—all face challenges in balancing accuracy, computational efficiency, and adaptability to non-linear aging dynamics. This study proposes a new framework that combines multi-scale data preprocessing and a divide-and-conquer strategy to address these limitations. Firstly, a hybrid Wavelet–SG filter is applied to suppress noise, and a set of specialized XGBoost micro models is trained, with each model predicting capacity for a specific cycle, enabling precise trajectory prediction at different aging stages. The evaluation on the Toyota-MIT-Stanford dataset (118 batteries under different operating protocols) shows that this method achieves an average MAPE of 1.16% and a maximum of no more than 2.5% on the unfamiliar protocol test set. In terms of accuracy, it achieves performance comparable to CNN, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM benchmarks. Importantly, its parallel architecture enables fast inference (400 milliseconds on CPU), making it suitable for edge deployment in battery management systems. The model also has interpretability consistent with physical laws and can autonomously capture stage-dependent degradation mechanisms. This work provides a reliable, efficient, and interpretable solution for real-world battery health monitoring.