Longitudinal Growth Dynamics and Future Potential for the Supply–Demand Trend of Mango and Avocado Exports in Australia

Export supply chains (ESCs) for perishable fruits, such as mangoes and avocados, are shaped by complex supply–demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions. However, limited forecasting of these dynamics constrains strategic planning and investment in Australia’s horticultural sector. This study assesses the longitudinal growth and future potential of mango and avocado exports. To achieve this, the study identifies influential supply–demand dynamics and applies time-series forecasting to understand the export trends. Historical export–import data were analysed for mango and avocado from 1992 to 2024, including volume, value, per capita GDP (Australia and key importing nations), real exchange rate, and real interest rate. Holt’s exponential smoothing was used to forecast export trends, supported by unit root testing in RStudio 4.2.3 and model execution in SPSS version 30. ARIMA and ARIMAX models were applied to stationary variables to improve mango export forecasts. The results show that avocado exports follow a strong upward trajectory, while mango exports remain volatile due to logistical inefficiencies and informal trade disruptions. ARIMAX modelling confirmed that production and consumption volumes significantly enhance forecast accuracy. Macroeconomic trends, rising GDP, declining real interest rates, and stable real exchange rates further reinforce Australia’s competitive position in the destination markets. The long-run trends in export volume and value suggest that both the mango and avocado sectors hold potential for further export growth, although the higher volatility observed in the avocado series indicates that expansion should be approached cautiously. To sustain this growth, maintaining a balanced relationship between production capacity and export demand, particularly for commodities exhibiting higher volatility, will be essential for ensuring stable and efficient export performance over time.