Dynamics of Consumer Responses to Cultivated Meat in Future Food Systems: Mediation, Moderation, and Heterogeneity, A Quantitative Structural Equation Modeling Study in Brazil

The growing demand for animal-based protein has intensified environmental, sanitary, and ethical pressures on food systems, fostering the search for sustainable alternatives to conventional meat production. In this context, cultivated meat, enabled by emerging technologies such as 3D printing and bioprinting, is a promising innovation whose viability depends not only on technological advances but also on consumer responses to cultivated meat. The objective of this study was to empirically evaluate a theoretical model of consumer responses to cultivated meat, incorporating mediating mechanisms and moderating conditions related to sociodemographic characteristics that explain the formation of purchase intention. This research adopts a quantitative, applied, and explanatory approach, conducted through a survey and analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The final sample comprised 139 Brazilian consumers residing in the Federal District. The results indicate that animal welfare has a significant positive effect on perceptions of cultivated meat as a sustainable substitute, whereas food technology neophobia has a significant negative effect. Perceived sustainable substitutability proved to be a robust mediator between antecedent factors and purchase intention, accounting for a substantial proportion of the variance. Additionally, moderating effects of age were identified in the relationships between animal welfare and sustainable substitutability, as well as between food quality and sustainable substitutability, and of income in the relationship between food technology neophobia and sustainable substitutability, evidencing heterogeneity in consumer response patterns. These findings reinforce the processual and segmented nature of consumer responses to cultivated meat and contribute to a deeper understanding of the challenges associated with the transition toward more sustainable future food systems.